Thoughts from the mind of Ben Welby

Tag: Mayor of London

Prime Minister, please don’t re-open the debate about ULEZ

This entry is part 4 of 5 in the series ULEZ

I had to sigh heavily when I saw this tweet from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with its pledge to “End Labour’s unfair ULEZ Expansion”.

Just last month, Sadiq Khan won a resounding victory in the Mayor of London elections, an election that had come to be seen as a referendum on ULEZ.

At the time, I revisited the Department for Transport data for the third time and established that between March 2022 and September 2023 there was a 40% reduction in the most problematic private cars. To my mind that makes ULEZ a successful policy intervention. It also means that the incumbent government is campaigning on the basis of something that affects just 331,632 private cars in London, a city of 9 million.

Well, it affected 331,632 private cars by the end of September 2023. I asked ChatGPT to help me with the linear regression and it told me this month, June 2024, the figure will probably be 230,000.

I wonder how many policies have generated so much airtime for such a small proportion of the population. It is deeply perplexing that ULEZ has worked its way into our national psyche (not to mention the time I’ve spent looking at it myself!)

Does the latest dataset support that projection?

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ULEZ is a successful policy intervention.

This entry is part 3 of 5 in the series ULEZ

So, we arrive at Judgement Day for Sadiq Khan’s time as Mayor of London. And we’re being asked to judge him solely on whether we think the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) is a successful policy intervention or not. His Conservative opponent, Susan Hall, certainly doesn’t think so and has promised to scrap the expanded ULEZ on her first day in office.

I’ve written before about how the Conservative party has weaponised ULEZ instead of seriously thinking about how government and Mayor can work together to achieve the intent behind this policy. Obviously that’s not going to happen but it’s still disappointing to have seen the Mayoral election reduced to a referendum on ULEZ.

Having crunched the data before it is only right to see whether we can gauge the success of ULEZ in terms of its impact on car ownership in London. Fortunately the Department for Transport have published an updated version of the veh9901 dataset (here’s the dataset I used for this post, captured in the Web Archive) that takes us through to September 2023.

And having looked at the data (which includes an 8 month lag don’t forget) it’s such a pity that we spend so much time listening to people having to defend or attack ULEZ rather than recognising ULEZ as a successful policy intervention because its achievements are significant, to the extent that I’m doubting my sums.

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